On-Track Passing in NASCAR Year by Year

by Sean Wrona

In this column I will break down the leaders in each of the statistical categories I have invented for on-track leading for every season from 1985-2017. Although I have also done the years 1983 and 1984, I did not include them in the previous articles in this series so I will not be doing so here either. For each table, races led reflects the number of races each driver made an on-track pass for the lead, but does not include races where a driver won the pole and led the opening stint of the race, unless that driver made a pass for the lead later in the event (or there were no on-track passes for the lead, in which cases I did give the polesitter a race led.) Record indicates the lead change record for that season (number of passes for the lead made to number of times passed for the lead.) Wins are self-explanatory. TNL is the number of times a driver was the last driver to take the lead on track in the race. LML is the number of times each driver led the most laps in a race (if there was a tie, I awarded it to the driver who finished higher in the race.) LSL (short for lead share leader) is the number of times each driver led a given race in lead shares (indicating the number of races in which each driver was the best passer in the race; if there was a tie, I awarded it to the driver who took the lead on track last.) LS is the number of lead shares each driver accumulated, and CRL or cumulative races led is the sum of the percentage each driver led in all races in that season. Once again, I only counted races for which I was confident enough that I had all the lead changes, based on either video footage, contemporary newspaper reports, or in a few cases, detailed caution lap records (there were a few races that had so many cautions that there weren't any green flag runs long enough to have pit stops in which I assumed all passes under green were natural, even if they didn't have video footage, although this was likely incorrect.) I have listed the leader for each category in a given year in red boldface print. For the lead change record category, I only considered drivers who had five or more races led naturally, which is what I felt would be necessary to be a large enough sample size.

For each year, I will also provide season summaries, particularly spotlighting seasons that appear to be significantly overrated and underrated. Generally, in the most underrated seasons, TNL should be higher than wins (because the driver placed themselves in position to win more often than they won, due usually to circumstances outside of their control such as being beaten out of the pits or mechanical failures), LSL should be higher than LML (drivers who were the top passer more frequently than they led the most laps were unlucky as they were more dominant through their own efforts than they were through their team's), and lead shares should be higher than CRL (again, drivers who take the lead on track by themselves should be rated higher than those who lead often not through their own efforts.) Hence if there is a driver who leads in leading the most laps but does not lead in races with the most lead shares, or a driver who leads in CRL but does not lead in lead shares, or a driver who leads in wins but does not lead in TNL, those are hallmarks of an overrated season. Drivers who lead in lead shares but do not lead in CRL, lead in TNL but do not lead in wins, or lead in LSL but do not lead in races leading the most laps, generally achieved more through their own efforts and were hurt by their teams. Drivers are sorted by the number of lead shares for each season, because I believe that is the best measure that reflects how many races drivers lead, how often drivers lead, and how late in the race drivers lead (with passes closer to the end of the race being worth more.) This simultaneously is likely the best measure that reflects both passing ability in general, clutch passing ability, and diversity (being able to make passes on a wide variety of tracks) and therefore is likely the best column on which to sort these data. This is by far and away the longest Racermetrics column I have ever written so to break it up I will provide links to each individual season and you can just read whichever seasons particularly interest you if you have no interest in reading the whole thing.

1985

13 of the 28 races from this season are missing, but there is certainly enough information available to indicate that neither the champion and most consistent driver Darrell Waltrip or the most dominant driver Bill Elliott were as successful as they seemed. Both had tremendously overrated seasons. Although five Elliott wins are missing, what we do have indicates that Elliott was certainly very lucky to win as often as he won. He had more wins than TNL, more races in which he led the most laps than races in which he earned the most lead shares (Dale Earnhardt actually earned more lead shares in the races counted and led more races as well), and substantially more cumulative races led than lead shares. Although Elliott was the most dominant driver by far nearly doubling Earnhardt's CRL, Earnhardt was nearly just as dominant in terms of on-track passing (although unfortunately too much of that in this era was him knocking people out of the way on short tracks, which I believe he did to Tim Richmond three separate times to take his final lead.) Elliott led all statistics related to leading, but Earnhardt led all statistics related to leading through his own efforts, indicating that the only reason Elliott looked that good in 1985 was the strength of his team. However, he was still significantly stronger than Waltrip, who had a fairly lackluster season in terms of passing, even posting a negative lead change record. This was a general trend for Waltrip, who from 1983-1992 posted 11 more wins than TNL, more than any other driver. To be sure, he developed a conservative style after his crash in the 1983 Daytona 500, and it was highly effective in terms of getting good results to remain competitive in the championship, but if you look at how Waltrip won many of these races, he was extremely lucky (think of how he won both his only Daytona 500 win in 1989 and his only Southern 500 win in 1992 on fuel mileage for instance) and in this portion of his career he was much less dominant than Elliott, not even mentioning Earnhardt, who thoroughly eclipsed all other drivers in this era more than most people realize looking at the stats now. Elliott may still have had the best season, especially if you include his five missing wins, and likely his team deserved the title, but it appears Earnhardt may have already been the best driver before his reign of dominance began. Both Elliott and Waltrip were inflated by their teams, while Earnhardt seemed to have been hurt by his.

1986

Although Tim Richmond's season tends to get more hype than Earnhardt's because he won more races than Earnhardt, had an even flashier style (while Earnhardt generally had a conservative points racing style actually for the most part despite his unfortunate tendency to wreck people, and even that was overblown in the '90s), and because Richmond's ascent to dominance was more rapid while Earnhardt's was more slow burning and sustained, that doesn't mean Richmond had the better season. Although there is one Richmond win missing in the data, Earnhardt significantly outperformed him in every category except wins and lead change record, and that likely indicates that Richmond only won more because he had the stronger team. Furthermore, Earnhardt led the points standings most of that season and needed to be more conservative to protect his points lead, while Richmond was coming from far behind, which meant he needed to be more aggressive to play catch up, which may be the only reason he ended up winning more races and setting a stronger lead change record in the first place. The fact that Richmond's teammate Geoff Bodine matched him in the number of races led with fifteen, and rarely did anything similar to that in any other season (except for 1994) also doesn't bode well for Richmond. Although Richmond certainly thoroughly dominated Bodine in any category you'd want to look at, particularly those related to on-track passing, the fact that Bodine too was so dominant in so many races (and was usually thoroughly dominated by his other Hendrick teammates in 1987-1989) indicates that Hendrick likely had stronger cars than Childress did that season, no doubt explaining why Darrell Waltrip went to Hendrick the following season after leaving the Junior Johnson operation. Richmond may have been flashier, and certainly had the second best season, but Earnhardt clearly deserved this championship. Just winning the most races doesn't mean you were the best driver. Waltrip's 6-12 record looks astonishingly poor considering he finished third in the championship, and clearly Bodine appears to have had the third best season. Morgan Shepherd's seven races led look interesting considering how much he struggled in most other seasons, but his lead change record was very weak although he did get a natural win at Atlanta. Chevrolet's increase in speed this season hurt Bill Elliott considerably as without the dominant cars he fell to a negative lead change record.

1987

Earnhardt pretty much unambiguously had the best season here no matter what you look at, even if Bill Elliott did have a higher lead change percentage, which may entirely reflect him having faster cars (which he clearly did on the superspeedways, posting a dominant Daytona 500 win among other things.) Elliott still had just as sizable a distance between himself and anyone else as Earnhardt had to him. They were first and second pretty unambiguously no matter what you look at.Although Terry Labonte finished 3rd in points in his debut season for Junior Johnson, and Darrell Waltrip finished 4th in points in his debut season for Rick Hendrick, they weren't particularly impressive. Neither of them won naturally (with Labonte beating Earnhardt out of the pits at North Wilkesboro and Waltrip bumping Labonte into Earnhardt on the last lap at Martinsville and passing them both as they spun; although Earnhardt only half-spun and saved his car, I still did not count that as a TNL for Waltrip, but it was debatable) and neither of them had such stellar lead change records with Waltrip only at 7-7 and Labonte at a dismal 8-15. Those two races indicate that Earnhardt was maybe even unlucky. Despite winning eleven races (one of which was missing), he actually had one more TNL than win. Unlike Elliott's 1985, Earnhardt's 1987 was dominant - and consistently dominant - across all categories. Tim Richmond was probably in his mere eight starts more impressive than all three of the Hendrick regulars (Waltrip, Geoff Bodine, and Benny Parsons) combined as he doubled their combined win total, TNL total, and nearly matched their lead share total despite missing most of the season. Hendrick clearly felt the loss of Richmond very badly. Davey Allison's rookie season was overrated as he led the most laps in 3 races but only led in lead shares twice, and had significantly more CRL than lead shares, but it was still highly impressive, and certainly more than his 1989 and 1990 were. Rusty Wallace probably had the third most impressive season as nobody besides Earnhardt and Elliott really came close to his nine races led, although on a percentage basis Richmond did much better and Allison did almost as well. Wallace was clearly underrated as he had more TNL than wins, more races with the most lead shares than races leading the most laps, and more lead shares than CRL. This likely presages Wallace's dominance in 1988 and 1989, although as it turned out, both of those seasons were overrated for him.

1988

This season had considerably more parity than the previous few (likely due to the Goodyear/Hoosier tire war) and is thereby significantly more interesting. While Earnhardt, Elliott, and Wallace effectively continued their dominance of the previous season, almost all categories had a lot more diversity within their leader lists. Earnhardt and Elliott still led the most races by a large margin, with both of them tied at fifteen races led. However, Wallace and Elliott both had higher lead change percentages than Earnhardt and certainly appeared more clutch at the end as they both won six races to Earnhardt's three. Curiously though, Earnhardt's 4 TNLs are right between Elliott's 5 and Wallace's 3 and except for wins and lead change record Earnhardt dominated Wallace in every category, indicating he was merely unlucky to not win a third straight championship, although this time Elliott may have outperformed him (they were certainly close.) All three of them led the most laps more often than they led in win shares, and all three of them had higher CRL than lead shares, indicating that in each case their teams may have been pulling more weight than in previous seasons. However, it was Ricky Rudd who clearly had the most underrated season, and maybe actually the best of his career. Although he only won one race and finished 11th in points, he was the last driver to take the lead on track four times (he was beaten out of the pits by Wallace at Riverside, spun by Earnhardt at the fall North Wilkesboro race, which oddly nobody mentions with regard to their famous contact in the race one year later, and blew engines at Richmond and Phoenix while leading; although his one win that year wasn't natural it doesn't make up for that bad luck.) Although Wallace fought for the championship and Rudd did not, Rudd had the best lead change percentage of everyone and had more lead shares than Wallace and wasn't too far behind Earnhardt and Elliott, and he did this in the Kenny Bernstein car which was not known for being a powerhouse. I've tended to find that Rudd's 1990s are generally overrated, but his 1980s do seem to generally be underrated to compensate for that, and it is fairly impressive despite Rudd being renowned as a conservative driver that he led in lead change percentage in three different seasons, one in each decade. Darrell Waltrip was a bit more impressive this year than the previous few, and thoroughly dominated teammates Geoff Bodine and Ken Schrader. Davey Allison was lucky to benefit from Rudd's engine failure at Richmond but was the TNL at Rockingham before being beaten out of the pits by Elliott and later crashing. Hoosier tires were very dominant early in the season with Neil Bonnett posting an 8-2 record and Lake Speed winning. Sterling Marlin was the most consistent Hoosier driver over the entire season with seven races led, but although he had some impressive on-track passes for the lead, he didn't really factor in any race wins, while Bonnett and Speed dominated theirs, so they both had more lead shares. Earnhardt, Elliott, and Wallace were still the most dominant, but it wasn't quite as pronounced as 1987 and Rudd certainly wasn't as far off from them as his wins and points position would indicate.

1989

Rusty Wallace may have won the championship, but it appears that was entirely because he was lucky. He certainly deserved a championship for the amount of career success he had, but he was not the best driver this season. Despite Dale Earnhardt having a missing win in this season and Wallace having no missing wins in his career, it is clear that Wallace was tremendously lucky and Earnhardt was tremendously unlucky, which is certainly enough to make up for a 12-point swing. Earnhardt was the TNL 7 times but only won 4 races, while Wallace was the TNL only 3 times and won six, and Darrell Waltrip was even worse, matching Wallace in wins with only 2 TNLs. Earnhardt doubled Wallace in the number of races he had the most lead shares (despite Wallace nearly doubling Earnhardt in the number of races he led the most laps), and had nearly two more lead shares as well. Wallace nearly matched Earnhardt in cumulative races led, but didn't come close in lead shares. Clearly, Wallace was leading more - and winning more - through the efforts of his team more than through his own efforts, and that should likely explain why Earnhardt was likely better able to sustain his dominance over the next half decade than was Wallace (and Wallace's 1993 and 1994 both come out to be badly overrated too.) To be fair to Wallace, two of Earnhardt's races in which he was the TNL but did not win (the infamous North Wilkesboro race and the Bristol night race, where he crashed by leading) where arguably Earnhardt's fault, and mistakes he made that he should have paid the price for. Even adjusting for that effect however, I think Earnhardt's season was still stronger. Wallace was nowhere near as close of a threat to Earnhardt as he is regarded, nor was Bill Elliott, nor was Darrell Waltrip, making all of them look less impressive and Earnhardt even more. While Wallace's season was overrated, it was still clearly second best, but Waltrip's was hideously overrated. Note first off that he has almost the same exact record as his teammate Ken Schrader. Both of them led ten races and Waltrip's lead change record of 30-26 was nearly identical to Schrader's 30-27. However, despite only winning once to Waltrip's six times, Schrader actually beat him in lead shares (and was only one race behind him in the points standings.) Based on the preceding few seasons, Waltrip was clearly in decline, and looking at any other statistic other than wins here, he deserved nowhere close to the six wins he got, and by no means was head and shoulders above Schrader, although both of them were clearly far more dominant than Geoff Bodine. Alan Kulwicki's 1989 was even more underrated than Ricky Rudd's 1988. Despite finishing 14th in points and not winning any races, Kulwicki was badly unlucky, outdueling Wallace twice at the spring Rockingham and spring Richmond races and taking the lead right before cautions came out, at which point Wallace beat Kulwicki out of the pits both times to win (possibly this alone was enough for him to win the title) and he could never recover. Then Kulwicki blew an engine while leading at Charlotte where he was also the TNL. His six poles and being fourth in laps led come a lot closer to matching Kulwicki's performance than his lack of wins or his 14th place in the points standings does. It should be clear based on that why Kulwicki was offered the Junior Johnson ride in 1990 replacing Terry Labonte first, and why Bodine was the second choice. That's not even counting that Kulwicki nearly won the Daytona 500 on fuel mileage, not Waltrip, before cutting a tire with two laps remaining even though he had the fuel to finish; had he won that race, his career might be looked at very differently, although Schrader was overwhelmingly more dominant than anyone else at Daytona that year and was the TNL there. Kulwicki's 1989 was probably the most underrated season of any in the surveyed period.

1990

Dale Earnhardt was pretty much just as dominant in this season as he was in 1987 even if he won two fewer times in one more race. Just as in 1987, he may have actually been slightly unlucky, as he had one more TNL than win and one more race leading in lead shares than races he led the most laps. However, his last-lap cut tire in the Daytona 500 probably is responsible for most of that minor difference. Regardless, he thoroughly dominated all other drivers in all categories. This time unlike 1989 Wallace was a bit unlucky with 4 TNL to 2 wins but despite that he was certainly far further off from Earnhardt in 1990 than he was in 1989, and no one else comes close. Certainly not Mark Martin, who may have been the most consistent and had the highest average finish but had no business being even close in the championship battle. He certainly would have backed into the title had he not had the 46-point penalty, and this was far from Martin's best season. He had a losing lead change record for the third year in a row (and would not even have a winning one until 1992); he was 7th in lead shares and 6th in CRL and his dominance really wasn't commensurate for him being ahead of Earnhardt in points most of the season. Really, just like most of the rest of the period from 1987-89, Wallace and Elliott remained the closest thing to challengers to Earnhardt as usual, while Martin's power run would be a bit later from 1992-1998. Geoff Bodine may have finished 3rd in points but he wasn't necessarily as impressive as that indicates either. For the sixth consecutive season, the Junior Johnson #11 team, whether it was driven by Darrell Waltrip, Terry Labonte, or Bodine, had a negative lead change record, likely indicating Johnson had either the best strategist or pit crew, making all his drivers look better than they were (Johnson drivers in this era seemed to pretty consistently finish higher in the points standings than they were actually running in the race.) Ricky Rudd's move to the Hendrick team was clearly a successful one, as he had the highest lead change percentage of all drivers and beat teammates Ken Schrader and Waltrip by nearly all metrics (although Waltrip missed much of the summer due to an injury.) Ernie Irvan had a quite underrated breakout season as there is a staggering difference between his 2.1 lead shares and 0.8 cumulative races led. He was leading much more often through his own efforts than the efforts of his team. In addition to his win at Bristol, he was the TNL at the Southern 500 the following week, where he made three out of four passes for the lead before being beaten out of the pits by Earnhardt. Irvan's seasons being underrated continue as a general trend for him for basically every other year in the '90s. Finally, Davey Allison's season looks remarkably overrated. Although he did win two races, he won neither of them by an on-track pass for the lead and he only led four races naturally all on superspeedways usually early, giving him an astoundingly low 0.23 lead shares, considering how dominant he would be the next two seasons. Morgan Shepherd may have briefly led the points due to consistency in the early season, but did not earn his Atlanta win naturally, as he took the lead from Elliott in the pits upon the pit road crash that took the life of Mike Rich, and Earnhardt was actually the TNL there, as Elliott beat him out of the pits.

1991

Clearly, this is one of the most interesting seasons for a variety of reasons. After a 1989 and 1990 that were much more lackluster than they seemed as he won four races despite only one TNL in those seasons, Davey Allison suddenly exploded into dominance in 1991 leading or sharing the lead in all statistical categories except for lead change record. This is usually attributed to Robert Yates no longer attempting to be the car owner, crew chief, and engine builder all simultaneously as he did for most of 1989 and 1990, and hiring crew chiefs Jake Elder, and eventually Larry McReynolds, to replace himself. Considering Allison has already proven to be one of the best unrestricted superspeedway duelists ever, but pretty lackluster at dueling at all other track types, it seems the main difference here is the speed of his cars in this season and in 1992. This is really the first season where it seems like Earnhardt was generally outperformed by another driver in every regard in terms of on-track leading, although it's worth noting that they were still tied in number of races with the most lead shares and very close on number of races led and total lead shares. It's also clear that much like with Tim Richmond in 1986 that Allison was probably more aggressive to try to come from behind and therefore won more and made more passes for the lead as a result. It's also worth noting that one of Earnhardt's wins is missing and none of Allison's are, which could make a difference here. They were clearly closely matched, and more closely matched than the points standings would indicate. My usual criticism of Allison that he was extraordinary on superspeedways and not so much on other tracks was definitely not the case this season. It does seem that he stepped it up as a driver this year too taking the lead on track at Richmond, both Bristol races, and Watkins Glen, tracks where he hardly ever factored - but sometimes lucked into wins anyway - prior to this point. Earnhardt likewise led at Watkins Glen and led three of the eight short track races, so it's not like he had that much of an advantage on the drivers' tracks either. Earnhardt was certainly more consistent than Allison and seemed to have a history of not battling as hard as he could have or not winning as often as he could have to ensure the title so if you prefer his season on that basis, I won't argue with you, but this is the moment when Allison became suddenly great for a brief period after two very overrated seasons prior to that. Wallace wasn't very far behind in terms of dominance and his 25-10 lead change record is electrifying, although unfortunately a bit contrived. Much of that stems from the spring Bristol race where NASCAR introduced the infamous odd/even pit rules where odd cars pitted on one lap and even cars pitted on the next. Outside polesitter Ricky Rudd was handed the lead on each restart by these bizarre rules, with Wallace passing him on each successive restart. This plus his late race passes of Ernie Irvan gave him a staggering 8-1 lead change record in that race (without it Ernie Irvan clearly would have had the highest lead change percentage, and without Rudd's record of 4-9 in that race, he'd be barely below negative instead of substantially), so it skewed a lot. Considering Wallace also made up three laps to win in that race, it was probably the best race of his career regardless. He was certainly unlucky as well though in spite of that race and the rain-shortened Pocono race because he had two more TNL than wins and three more races where he had the most lead shares than the most wins. While Irvan was underrated in 1990, he did win and lead more often than he should have based on his own efforts; however his very high lead change percentage and being second in the number of races led mean he still may have had an underrated season even finishing 5th in points. Alan Kulwicki had another underrated season with more TNL than wins and more races where he led in lead shares than led the most laps, but that is badly skewed by the spring Atlanta race where he won the pole and there were no on-track lead changes (because of the pit rules that forced all drivers to pit for tires under green.) Clearly the bizarre 1991 pit rules skewed a lot of drivers, like Wallace, Kulwicki, and Rudd, in some odd directions, which mean these have to be taken with a grain of salt to some degree. Rudd clearly had a disappointing season despite finishing 2nd in points in 1991. The man who led in lead change percentage in 1988 and 1990 only won one race when Michael Waltrip had the botched pit stop at Darlington, and even without the Bristol race, he still would have had a negative lead change record. However, it was Harry Gant who had the most overrated season. Despite tying Allison in wins, he wasn't even close on performance (unless perhaps you account for the difference between the Robert Yates and Leo Jackson teams) as he clearly lucked into the fuel mileage race at Talladega and didn't even lead two of the races in his four in a row streak (Southern 500 and Dover) naturally, giving him only 2 TNL despite his 5 wins and 4 in a row. It was a nice story, but overhyped, and his performance wasn't up there with Allison's, unless you think he overachieved for the level of his equipment substantially, which is arguable. Surprisingly, Sterling Marlin actually became the first Junior Johnson driver to finally achieve a .500 lead change record, after all previous Johnson drivers (except Neil Bonnett in 1985) had negative lead change records. He thoroughly dominated his teammate Bodine, who again posted another negative lead change record although neither of them were significant race factors. Bodine won a fuel-mileage race at Charlotte (with what many people speculated at the time was an oversized fuel tank, which would be no surprise for that team) but was a complete non-factor relative to Marlin. This is the start of Marlin's breakout which was much bigger and much more sustained than anybody realizes by looking at his stat lines. I must also offer a huge shout out to Dale Jarrett. Although his season was mostly forgettable besides his win, people seriously underrate the significance of his win. He passed the dominant driver of the year on worn tires on the last lap in a car with a clearly inferior engine on a horsepower track no less. This is actually the only time between Neil Bonnett in 1982 and Ryan Blaney in 2017 that the Wood Brothers earned a natural win on track, and Allison won the previous and following Michigan races, so this was no slouch that Jarrett outdueled. For him to do something that no other driver did in a 35 year time span may be his most impressive accomplishment. Anybody who still thinks Davey Allison was better than Dale Jarrett, or the best Yates driver in general, needs to look at that race carefully and explain it.

1992

To a degree, Davey Allison continued his dominance of 1991, but from a leading perspective, this year was nowhere near as impressive for him. However, when you consider that he was injured repeatedly, it may have been in that regard. While Allison did lead both Bristol races naturally, all his other races led came on superspeedways and he did not come close to having the diversity he did in 1991, despite the fact that the Fords were substantially faster. Considering his injuries, this is likely understandable. However, since he had a truly dismal start to 1993 from a leading perspective (and Ernie Irvan replaced him and instantly dominated to a greater degree than Allison was doing), I tend to believe these two seasons were anomalies for him relative to the rest of his career, or what would have come had he lived. He really stepped it up in 1991 for sure, but his cars seemed to carry him in 1992, where he was less dominant despite a greater speed edge. His lead change record looks less impressive. He had one fewer TNL than win, and also more CRL than lead shares, and more LML than LSL, and that even counts the 1992 Daytona 500 as a TNL because he passed Michael Waltrip who stayed out of the pits on a restart even though all his real competition was taken out in the Sterling Marlin/Bill Elliott/Ernie Irvan wreck for the lead. Alan Kulwicki, however, was again in some sense underrated. Although he only won two races to Allison and Elliott's five, he was somewhat unlucky while both of them were lucky as his 3 TNL and 3 LSL were right between Allison's 4 of each and Elliott's 2 of each (although one of Elliott's wins - the spring race at Rockingham - is missing and he did appear to dominate that.) Elliott's win at the spring race at Atlanta where he managed to stay out of the pits and lap the field after all the faster cars had pitted was maybe the luckiest of his career, and obviously we all know Kulwicki sacrificed the final race to secure the championship by making sure he led the most laps at the fall Atlanta race, so he wasn't the TNL there either. The trend of Junior Johnson drivers always having negative lead change records continues here, but what's particularly odd is that Elliott and teammate Marlin had the exact same lead change record at 12-13. Elliott won five races and Marlin won none and the season was considered a tremendous disappointment for Marlin, leading to him being fired and strangely replaced by Hut Stricklin. However, while Elliott clearly outperformed him by all metrics (and almost certainly more when you include the missing Rockingham race) they just weren't as far off in terms of dueling ability and lead change stats as you'd expect given the win difference. Marlin was the TNL for the spring Talladega race before Allison beat him out of the pits and wasn't passed. Considering the level of Ford dominance, it was disappointing for him, but considering he was passing nearly as efficiently as Elliott was, I think it's clear he shouldn't have been fired. While Allison and Elliott both had overrated seasons and Kulwicki had an underrated one, clearly the most underrated season was that of Mark Martin. Although Martin was technically eligible for the championship at the final race he was generally an afterthought compared to the other championship contenders, but his performance was just as strong if not stronger. His 20-6 lead change record was in fact one of the best lead change percentages ever recorded, especially shocking since Martin had had a negative lead change record in all previous seasons. This was clearly Martin's breakout, and to a degree that makes sense given the level of Ford dominance made pretty much everyone in a Ford look better and almost everyone in a Chevrolet and Pontiac look worse than they actually were, but Martin's year-to-year improvement here looks staggering, even more than any of the other championship contenders. He was tied with Allison in TNL and races with the most lead shares despite not leading the most laps in any race that season, indicating that he was putting himself in position to win and leading through his own efforts way more than it appeared from the overall results. This year, not 1990, is clearly when Martin made his jump to elite. With twice as many lead shares as cumulative races led, and his rankings in all the other lists, this is definitely one of the most underrated ever seasons despite him finishing 6th in points and still being eligible for the title. Ernie Irvan too was considerably underrated also tying Martin and Allison for most races with the most lead shares and TNL. Martin was the TNL at Phoenix when Allison beat him on a pit exchange and also at the Southern 500 before, like Allison, losing the race on fuel mileage to Darrell Waltrip in addition to his wins. In addition to Irvan's wins, he was also the TNL at Michigan before Harry Gant beat him on fuel mileage; however, the Morgan-McClure team only really specialized at plate races and with Chevy's horsepower disadvantage, Irvan's talent could really be only felt on the road courses, particularly in a year like this when there were rather fewer lead changes than a lot of other seasons. Almost all the other GM drivers except for Kyle Petty's bizarrely dominant season struggled, with Earnhardt especially having his first negative lead change record in many years, and his only one between 1984 and 1998.

1993

The right man won the title and the only real question here is whether the right man finished second. This season was clearly dominated by far by only four drivers: Dale Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, and Ernie Irvan. Earnhardt led in almost all statistical categories in 1993 and in my opinion clearly outperformed Wallace in spite of Wallace winning 10 races to Earnhardt's 6. Wallace in 1993 clearly had by far and away the most dominant pit crew in the sport and that inflated his 1993 season very badly, as well as his 1994. Although Wallace did win seven of his ten races naturally, he won the other three by beating others out of the pits: Hut Stricklin at the spring Martinsville race and Harry Gant in both Rockingham races, none of which he led naturally at any point. Stricklin's opening lap pass of Geoff Bodine at Martinsville was actually the only pass in that race and gave him an entire lead share and an absurdly high ranking on this list. Earnhardt however was mostly unlucky, especially on the road course races, where he was the TNL in both before getting collected when cars wrecked in front of him both times (and had he won them both like he had dominated them, it's likely he would be thought of very differently as a road racer.) Earnhardt and Wallace ended up tied with 7 TNL but they led the most laps in the same number of races, and Earnhardt had the most lead shares in eight different races, twice what Wallace had. It is clear that Wallace was badly inflated by the strength of his pit crew in this season, just as in 1989, and he wasn't the best driver this season. The fact that he has a negative lead change record in a season in which he won ten races is especially shocking, but if he didn't have the speed of others and was granted the lead on restarts from having the fastest pit crew, that makes sense. The real question is actually whether Martin had a better season than Wallace, not whether Wallace had a better season than Earnhardt. Martin, who won four races in a row this season, continued his streak of being an impressive duelist that began in 1992 even though Ford didn't have nearly the advantage it had in 1992 (look how far Bill Elliott and Davey Allison drop while Martin actually arguably rises.) I long thought this season, not 1998, was Martin's most impressive, considering Martin had a much bigger advantage over his teammate and the other Ford teams in this year than he did in 1998 when much like 1992 almost everyone in a Ford looked better than they were, and it's nice to see a statistical basis of that. Although Wallace doubled Martin's win total and nearly doubled him in terms of the number of races with the most laps led, through Martin's own efforts he was the TNL 6 times (only one off both Earnhardt and Wallace) and in terms of lead shares he was way more dominant than Wallace, beating him by over two full lead shares and nearly matching Earnhardt, despite Wallace beating him by nearly two full lead shares. This indicates that again Martin had a massively underrated season, and while I don't think you can argue that Martin's season was better than Earnhardt's, I think it was at least just as good as Wallace's and possibly better, and that definitely defies the conventional wisdom. Irvan and Sterling Marlin were the only Ford drivers who looked strong at all except for Martin. Davey Allison had a dismal dropoff in 1993 (especially surprising since he had fully recovered from his 1992 injuries by then, but was seemingly much more dominant while injured) and only led one race naturally (his win at Richmond is the last race missing, but it appears he took the lead from probable TNL Kyle Petty in the pits under a caution period), yet despite Allison having a 2-6 record, Irvan had a far better 16-12 record and led 7 of the 9 races after he took the #28 car starting at the Southern 500. Irvan led more laps in those nine races than Allison did in the first 16 races of 1993, and more laps in his 20-race 1994 than Allison did in any season. Anyone who wants to argue Allison was better than Irvan needs to come up with a reasonable response for that. Despite being fired from Junior Johnson for whatever reason, Marlin had easily the best season of any Ford driver besides Martin and Irvan in terms of dueling. His lead change record of 8-5 was the best of anyone despite driving for the Stavola Brothers, he gave them their best championship finish since Dick Trickle in 1989 and was easily the most dominant in terms of on-track lead changes for that team since Bobby Allison in 1987 or possibly anyone ever. He dominated the inaugural race at Loudon before being beaten out of the pits by Allison, who would instantly be passed by Wallace, and he also dominated surprisingly at North Wilkesboro although Wallace passed him straight up there. Marlin way punched above the expectations of that team, and his 15th place points finish was quite impressive considering Jeff Burton, who would go on to double Marlin's win total, finished 24th and 32nd the next two seasons as the team would steadily get worse. This might be the most impressive season of Marlin's career actually given the context of his team, and it shouldn't be that big a surprise in retrospect that he began to really take off after this. Dale Jarrett was also somewhat impressive beating all three Hendrick drivers for the Joe Gibbs team, which was at that point a Hendrick satellite. He finished fourth in points, second highest of all the Chevy drivers behind only Earnhardt. This was the first time a Hendrick satellite operation had consistently outperformed all of Hendrick and is certainly worth praise. Coupled with his Michigan win in 1991, Jarrett was clearly underrated in this period as well, and maybe it shouldn't be such a surprise he did so well against Ricky Rudd when they were teammates for Yates, considering he outperformed him clearly in this season.

1994

Dale Earnhardt, now in his 40s, was clearly beginning to fall off from his previous dominance but he still deserved this title after Ernie Irvan's injury put him out for the rest of the season. Despite only starting 20 of the 31 races that season, Irvan still blows the other dominant drivers (Earnhardt, Rusty Wallace, Mark Martin, and Geoff Bodine) out of the water in all lead change related statistic. No one is even close, and I guess that shouldn't be that surprising if he won an award at the NASCAR banquet for most miles led despite not even running the last eleven races of the season. Earnhardt's only advantage over Irvan that kept him ahead of him in the points standings for much of the season was his consistency. Irvan was clearly outperforming him by all other metrics, and on a percentage basis, he would lead every metric except for wins. Again, that is because just like in 1989 and 1993 the dominance of Rusty Wallace's pit crews once again greatly inflated his season (when Ray Evernham would borrow most of Buddy Parrott's pit crew innovations for Jeff Gordon and do them better, not to mention Buddy Parrott leaving as crew chief and Todd Parrott leaving as car chief for the #2 team after the 1994 season, it should be no wonder Wallace's advantage disappeared in subsequent seasons.) While the other four dominant drivers that year all at least had .500 lead change records or greater, Wallace had easily the worst at 30-42, which again implies his pit crew did as much work for him as he did. His three more wins than TNL, two more races leading the most laps than earning the most lead shares, and having an additional CRL than lead share all indicate again this was an overrated season. Having said that, in only one race (the spring Martinsville race where Wallace beat TNL Irvan out of the pits) did it come down to the pit crews; his other lucky wins came in the Bristol night race when leader Bodine blew an engine and at the fall Dover race when leader Martin crashed while leading with a blown tire with a few laps left. While Wallace did have some underrated seasons, his career is clearly overrated as a whole considering all four of his major seasons (1988-89, 1993-94) were not as impressive as they looked. I gave Irvan credit for the TNL for both restrictor plate races Jimmy Spencer won since it is known that Spencer had an illegal car in those races and Irvan was the last driver with a legal car to take the lead on track, although others may disagree. This also makes Spencer one of only a handful of drivers to win a race without having any natural lead changes to his credit in that season along with Kyle Petty in 1987, Ricky Rudd in 1997, Elliott Sadler in 2001, and Chris Buescher and Tony Stewart in 2016. Irvan's other TNL that he did not win was the aforementioned spring Martinsville race. While Bodine thanks to his Hoosier tires and the absurd dominance they sometimes provided had one of the most dominant lead change records of the year (and only his second positive one since 1987) and certainly he had a much more impressive season than his points finish would indicate due to all the engine failures and crashes due to blown tires or being intentionally wrecked by his brother, he was to some degree lucky as his CRL was considerably greater than his LSL, indicating he was not as dominant as the amount he was leading would indicate, much like Wallace, and unlike Earnhardt, Irvan, and Martin. Martin again for the third straight time had a clearly underrated season with two more TNLs than wins and one more lead share than CRL, those races being the blown tire at Dover and the spring Bristol race where Bodine took the lead on caution flag pit stops before Earnhardt trapped him a lap down when Bodine pitted laps before a caution came out. Although he was outperformed by Irvan and Earnhardt, I'd say he outperformed Bodine when you consider consistency factors and he was once again comparable to Wallace. Wallace was not nearly as good as 1993-1994 made him look, but Martin was much better. Both played second-fiddle to Earnhardt and #28-era Irvan however. While Dale Jarrett's Joe Gibbs satellite dominated the Hendrick cars in 1993, that did not happen this year, as the addition of Terry Labonte to the team seemingly revitalized them and despite his conservative style and sub-.500 career lead change percentage, he had an unusually impressive 14-5 record here in a year all the other major Chevy drivers had .500 records or worse except for Sterling Marlin. Labonte was particularly stellar in the fall Richmond race which he won and earned a 7-2 lead change percentage, but note that that isn't that much better than his overall percentage for the season, so while he wasn't factoring in most of the races, he was truly elite when he was factoring, and in a year when the Chevies may have been a little down on horsepower to the Fords no less.

1995

Although the early '90s were interesting with a lot of unexpected surprises, the same cannot be said for this year. Jeff Gordon thoroughly dominated in all statistical categories except lead change record, which would consistently be a relative weakness for him compared to everything else: he was apparently always a better driver than a racer. The top five in the championship were more or less the top five in every single category as well, albeit in a different order, as Wallace this time unusually had an underrated season with 4 TNL and one lead share more than his number of CRL; his number of TNL tied Earnhardt, Mark Martin, and Sterling Marlin for the second most. While Earnhardt's consistency and lead share statistics certainly mean he had the second most impressive season, deciding between the other three is rather ambiguous. Martin again had the highest lead change percentage in 1995 as he did in 1992 but this time in a year Ford relatively struggled (Martin delivered half of Ford's eight wins that year, and did so on every track type). Wallace led just as many races naturally as he did in 1993 and 1994, but this time was probably a bit unlucky not to win more, though that doesn't counteract his inflated dominance of the previous two years. Compared to Martin, Gordon, Earnhardt, and Wallace all had positive lead change records but only barely, and Martin was clearly the best duelist, and even Marlin was a better duelist than them, although most of that clearly resulted from the #4 car's absurd advantage on the restrictor plate tracks that year that was a greater advantage than they had even in the years Ernie Irvan was there. Ricky Rudd's second owner-driver season was oddly more impressive especially from a lead change record perspective than almost all his Hendrick seasons. Overall, there really isn't a lot to say because most drivers more or less are probably where most people would expect in every category. Both of the Labonte brothers however stood out as having particularly overrated seasons this year, with Bobby inheriting the lead when TNL Ken Schrader blew an engine at the Coca-Cola 600 as well as winning a fuel mileage race, and Terry Labonte inheriting the lead when teammate Gordon missed a shift at Pocono and beating Wallace out of the pits at the spring Richmond race. Terry's dropoff is pretty astonishing considering he was the best duelist the previous year and the cars seemed to be infinitely stronger this year considering Gordon's dominance, not to mention the fact that Terry would go on to win the next year's championship.

1996

This year is mostly more of the same. Just as in 1995, Jeff Gordon led in all categories except for lead change percentage, and more or less most drivers should be where you expect based on the level of their dominance. Terry Labonte certainly didn't deserve the title but he did clearly step it up this season and with more TNL, LSL, and CRL than wins, he was probably unlucky to win only twice; it is interesting that his lead change record is better than Gordon's, but those differences are still too massive to really justify his championship. Sterling Marlin had the highest lead change percentage this time but that is ridiculously inflated due to his restrictor plate dominance. His 12-5 record on plate tracks gives him a decent, but not earth-shattering, 5-3 record outside them. If you discount the #4 car's plate advantage Ernie Irvan was perhaps surprisingly easily the top duelist of the year upon his comeback. The addition of the second car for Robert Yates Racing clearly reinvigorated them after Dale Jarrett had an okay but fairly mediocre 1995 by team standards, as both drivers proved to be exceptional duelists and had underrated seasons, with Jarrett having 5 wins to his 4 TNL and Irvan having 4 races where he had the most lead shares to 0 races where he led the most laps. Both Jarrett and Irvan had nearly an entire lead share more than their CRL, clearly indicating they were punching above their weight in terms of making passes, but likely didn't have pit crews able to compete with Gordon's, clearly a major advantage for him, which would become an even bigger one in 1997 as the Fords got even faster but Gordon remained just as dominant. Aside from the Yates drivers having better seasons than they looked, and Gordon and Wallace being a little lucky in terms of their race performance but obviously unlucky in terms of their championship performance (as they should have both finished better in the championship than they did based on the level of their dominance), few others really stand out as that lucky or unlucky as everybody else did more or less what they should have done, and there weren't huge gaps for the most part between championship rankings and rankings on this list for most drivers, except inevitably that the inconsistent drivers like Gordon, Wallace, and Irvan did a little worse in the championship than they should have. For a top ten points finisher, Ricky Rudd's 5-8 lead change record with his one win not being natural was a tremendous disappointment, especially considering how strong his 1995 was.

1997

This time, like in 1989, the wrong driver won the title, and for similar reasons. Dale Earnhardt may have finished barely ten points behind Rusty Wallace in 1989, and Dale Jarrett may have finished barely ten points behind Jeff Gordon in 1997, and Wallace and Gordon may have both won more races in their respective championship seasons, but the Dales clearly outperformed both of them in their respective seasons when considering the entire race performance and not merely who won. Much like most of Wallace's championship-caliber seasons, Gordon was very, very lucky. Although he had ten wins, he only had six TNL, as he beat Ward Burton out of the pits at Pocono, beat Jarrett out of the pits under caution in his Southern 500 win (actually, he beat Jarrett into the pits as Jarrett did not decide to pit until after Gordon had committed), beat Ernie Irvan out of the pits at Loudon, and won the inaugural race at Fontana on fuel mileage after Mark Martin had to pit late. Gordon clearly owed a lot to the Rainbow Warriors pit crew and Ray Evernham's strategy calls in this season especially and it wasn't nearly as dominant as it looks on the surface. Jarrett's season, however, was a lot more dominant than it looked on the surface, as he had 9 TNL to his 7 wins. Besides the Darlington race, he was TNL at Dover before crashing with Gordon while leading and was the TNL before future teammate Ricky Rudd won on fuel mileage at Indianapolis. Jarrett led both lead shares and CRL and was about equivalent at both indicating that he led proportionally just as often at almost all points in the race, but his greater TNL than win total indicate that he was stronger late and pretty clutch this season. When you further consider the Watkins Glen race, where Jarrett was penalized while running about 11th with a handful of laps left for smoke that turned about to be tire smoke and not engine related, dropping him to 30th, while Gordon was not penalized for jumping the final restart in the race despite Geoff Bodine's strong disapproval, and also considering Jarrett's general greater performance than Gordon in all the other categories, Jarrett has a much better argument for being robbed than Mark Martin does in 1990, but people don't usually tend to make that case. Irvan clearly had one of the most underrated seasons of the '90s in 1997 as he won one race and finished 14th in points, which looked so unimpressive relative to Jarrett alongside Irvan's off-track controversies that it led Robert Yates to fire him. However, although Irvan's performance wasn't anywhere near Jarrett's, it was far better than it looked on the surface. Irvan was extremely unlucky because he was the TNL four times (only behind Jarrett and Gordon that year) but only won once, as he was beaten out of the pits by Jeff Burton at the spring Loudon race and Jeff Gordon at the fall one and by Jarrett at the spring Darlington race. He factored in far more races that year than most people realize and was only behind Gordon, Jarrett, and Mark Martin in races led. With one more lead share than cumulative races led, that further indicates how unlucky he was. He nearly matched Martin, who had a very overrated season and really shouldn't have been in the title hunt that year, and Rusty Wallace, who had an underrated one (although most of that stems from the Sonoma race where he made the only pass for the lead and then drove off track very early in the race, handing Martin and the ultimate win, and likely skewing all such lead change stats pro-Wallace and anti-Martin for that year.) Despite Jeff Burton appearing to have his breakout, he had an overrated season and a negative lead change record. He inherited the lead at the inaugural Texas race when Todd Bodine crashed and beat Irvan out of the pits and wasn't a factor as often as it looked. Bill Elliott on the other hand was unlucky and a factor much more often than he looked, as he had the most number of lead shares in a race three times, seriously threatening for the win in both the Daytona 500 and the Southern 500 that year as well as the spring Michigan race. It was his only truly impressive season as an owner-driver. Aside from Gordon, this was a bad season for almost all Chevrolet drivers as GM started giving Hendrick in general and the #24 team more and more support particularly after Dale Earnhardt's injury at Talladega. Earnhardt still had a winning lead change record and still fares somewhat well here and seems unlucky not to have won. Although maybe he did not belong in the top five in points, he still didn't do as badly as many may expect. Rudd managed to match Jimmy Spencer as the only driver to win multiple races in a year without leading any races naturally, inheriting the lead after almost everyone else crashed at Dover and his Brickyard 400 fuel mileage win, although that is to some degree understandable considering all the owner-drivers were badly struggling at this point except for Elliott, who had arguably more success in terms of on-track performance than the Bodine brothers, Darrell Waltrip, and Rudd combined, except for Rudd backing into a couple of wins.

1998

Although Jeff Gordon certainly had the best season, it seems his advantage over Mark Martin was a little overrated as Martin was the most impressive duelist for the third time in seven years (1992, 1995, and 1998) with a 37-23 lead change record, recovering from a bit of a slump in 1996 and 1997 in terms of on-track passing. Although Gordon, Martin, and Dale Jarrett, all had more wins than TNL this year, for the most part they were relatively equal for everyone, with the main drivers affected being drivers who weren't regular threats like Johnny Benson (whose TNL is highly, highly debatable as Martin slowed down via gentlemen's agreement coming to a caution and Benson beat him to the start-finish line before Martin beat him to the pits) and Chad Little (whose TNL at Texas was actually legitimate before Martin beat him out of the pits). For all the talk of Gordon's luck (and he certainly won more races than he likely should have considering he didn't lead often enough for what one would expect from a 13-race season), his results seem more deserved than they were in 1997 although Martin's much higher lead change percentage means the difference in their performance was closer than it looked. Martin did in fact manage to lead more laps (barely) than Gordon in 1998, but Gordon tended to lead more at places that had fewer laps in a given race (such as restrictor plate tracks and road courses) more than Martin did, so when you consider all races equally, he was much more dominant in terms of leading. Martin's dominant lead change percentage was reflected in his having nine races with the most lead shares though, an unusually high number. It seems Gordon more thoroughly dominated the competition in 1995 and 1996 than he dominated Martin in 1998, although it's interesting that in none of the seasons of his heyday did he actually lead in lead change percentage (not until 2011 did he finally manage to do that.) That is far from the case in Dale Earnhardt or Jimmie Johnson's heyday as they were much better duelists at their peak, and does likely indicate that Gordon's peak was overrated, although not massively. Most other drivers did about as well as you'd expect they would have done. Earnhardt had his first negative lead change record since 1992 and only second since before the years covered in this study, and everybody in a Ford looked strong while almost all GM drivers except Gordon continued to look rather weak. One strong exception is Bobby Hamilton, whose 9-3 record would have been the highest lead change percentage had he managed to lead five races. Considering he substantially improved upon Sterling Marlin, finishing 10th in points to his 25th, this might have been his most impressive season and the season in which he was most underrated. Most of that came from his dominant Martinsville win where he went 6-1, but another quiet highlight was his Sonoma race where he passed Ricky Rudd before being passed by Gordon and nearly getting past Gordon again with a team that hadn't come close to doing anything like that since the Ernie Irvan years. For the most part though this season was about as dull as you think it was.

1999

Jeff Gordon was the most dominant driver by all lead change stats except for number of races led for the first time since 1996, but he was far too inconsistent to really be championship-caliber, and his 47-57 lead change record was his first negative record since 1994, indicating he and not merely his team were not as strong as before. However, much of that stems from the fact that he was starting to have much more competition from the entry of new drivers like Tony Stewart, who managed to score the best lead change percentage in his rookie season, a feat previously unheard of. The addition of Stewart to the Joe Gibbs Racing stable clearly brought the team to new heights as Bobby Labonte led more races than any other driver, but didn't even approach Stewart's lead change percentage. Although Labonte was lucky to win five races when he was only the TNL three times, he did have more lead shares than CRL meaning that he seemed to be lucky in terms of winning races but fairly unlucky in terms of losing the lead via unnatural means earlier in the race. However, considering Labonte had never had a lead change percentage better than one lead change over .500 before, this was a considerable improvement for him. While Dale Jarrett's consistency was astounding, his season was overrated from a passing perspective and not as good as his 1997. With 4.3 cumulative races led to 3.2 lead shares, it's clear the improvements in the #88 team were likely the major contributor to Jarrett's improved consistency. Although Jeff Burton led the points for a while and nearly won as many races as Gordon (and led the most laps in as many races as Gordon), he was nowhere near as impressive as Gordon in terms of leading statistics as he won two more races than he was the TNL, and he led the most laps in two more races than the number of races in which he had the most lead shares. Jeremy Mayfield and Terry Labonte had fairly underrated seasons as they both had over a half more lead shares than CRL, although for Labonte, the vast majority of that difference will be the Bristol night race where he was the TNL and lead share leader but failed to win. Most drivers had fairly similar numbers across each category more than in most other years, but the ranking here is still quite a bit different from the points standings.

2000

The same three drivers dominated in all advanced leader metrics in 2000, but none of them were the champion. Jeff Burton, Rusty Wallace, and Tony Stewart were the most dominant drivers in 2000 by most metrics but in terms of lead shares Burton stood alone with a fairly large lead despite Rusty Wallace having nearly 2 more CRL than him. Clearly Wallace was getting lucky to lead as often as he did mainly because of how many pole positions he won and perhaps his team's pit strategy as well. Burton obviously gained a tremendous amount by his leading every lap of the fall race of Loudon, but that doesn't actually play any role in his lead shares to CRL difference since he was the only driver to take the lead on track in that race giving him a full lead share and also the only driver to lead any laps giving him a full cumulative race led as well. Even without the Loudon race however Burton was the most impressive driver from a leading perspective as he would still be leading in lead shares without it. He was particularly strong versus his Roush Racing teammates, as he had more than twice as many lead shares by himself as the rest of the Roush drivers had combined. It's no wonder he was probably most people's preseason favorite to win the championship in 2001 after a season like that, even if Stewart won the most races (and once again had one of the best lead change percentages), Wallace and Stewart had the most TNL, and Wallace alone led the most laps the most times. Burton however scored the most lead shares most often and that played the difference here. He also led the most races and you can tell NASCAR was getting substantially more competitive at this point because this is the first time since 1992 that as few races led naturally as 16 topped the list in that category. It was also the first time since 1992 that the champion actually had a losing lead change record, but Labonte certainly did an excellent job of making passes for the lead late in the race when it mattered as he managed to have nearly twice as many lead shares as cumulative races led (particularly in the Brickyard 400 where he trailed Wallace nearly the whole way before a pass near the end; the way he stalked Wallace in a race-long duel before finally making his move late may have actually made it the best race of his career). Although Jeremy Mayfield's season was one of the most unbalanced in Cup history, his stats across all the advanced leading statistics were astonishingly balanced. Ricky Rudd's 16-6 lead change record looks fairly shocking considering he failed to win a race and most of his other stats don't look that hot either, but despite being considered to have a conservative style, he (like fellow conservative driver Mark Martin) did manage to each lead in lead change percentage in three different years. On-track passing clearly appears to be one of Rudd's strengths in his heyday, perhaps because he was best on road courses and short tracks, which don't tend to have as much passing and repassing as the superspeedways, allowing him to hold the lead longer than superspeedway specialists often can. Jerry Nadeau's season looked more balanced and less underrated than I was expecting, probably because the vast majority of his lead changes came in a handful of Atlanta and Charlotte races where he was dominant, but he was rather lackluster in a lot of other races. Ward Burton had a tremendously overrated season as he had a very poor 6-14 record and a half more CRL than lead shares. Many would argue this is understandable considering the weakness of the Bill Davis equipment, but I would expect him to be higher than 14th in lead shares in a year he was in the top ten in points the entire season.

2001

While this season was the beginning of the three-year period that was clearly the most competitive in NASCAR Cup history, the season in general was no contest as champion Jeff Gordon led in every leading metric except (as usual) lead change record, which continued to remain a weakness for him. However, he factored in so many more races than anyone else and dominated many more races than anyone else to the point it ended up not mattering. Tony Stewart only ranked 9th with 7 races led naturally, which would be his career low all the way until 2013, and his 17-14 lead change record was worse than most seasons in his prime. However, Stewart was extremely impressive in the races he did lead, earning the most lead shares in four races despite only leading the most laps in a race once, giving him about twice as many lead changes as CRL and ultimately resulting in his being ranked second in lead shares as well as the championship. Chip Ganassi's purchase of the SABCO team and the team's switch to Dodge revitalized Sterling Marlin's career and finally gave him cars capable of winning again, and he was impressive all year long actually posting the second highest total of races led (something I don't think most fans remembering this season would expect.) Although he was no longer the amazing duelist he was in the mid-'90s and also posted a mere .500 record, he also had four races where he scored the most lead shares despite only leading the most laps twice, placing third in this ranking as well as the championship, and none of the other Dodge drivers were even close. Despite being a championship contender throughout the first half of the season, Dale Jarrett actually had a losing lead change record, but like Stewart also posted four races where he had the most lead shares despite only leading the most laps in one race. While he doesn't gain as substantially as Stewart did, his season was fairly underrated from a leading perspective although since he ended up winning four races and finishing fifth in the points, his leading stats about what you'd expect based on his overall series performance. Despite how competitive this season was, it's astonishing how close this ranking came to the actual points standings (as opposed to 1998, where the ranking came even closer to matching the points standings, but nobody really viewed that season as very competitive at all compared to the surrounding seasons.) Sure, Jarrett and Ricky Rudd may have been Gordon's closest challengers in the points standings for most of the season, but they did decline late and it really doesn't look based on this that Stewart and Marlin's eventual second and third place points finishes were undeserved. This was clearly Dale Earnhardt, Inc.'s breakout season as the three regular drivers combined for an impressive 48-33 lead change record (59.3%), and perhaps surprisingly, Steve Park came out as the season's best duelist. Despite missing the last third of the season due to his Darlington Busch Series crash, he was still seventh overall in lead shares, which shows some sign of how impressive his dominance was. In addition to his Rockingham win, he was quite dominant at Darlington before being beaten by Jarrett out of the pits, and indeed losing that Darlington race marks the main difference between him having one win and two races in each of the other categories, as he led the most laps, earned the most lead shares, and was the TNL at Darlington (although his other race where he led the most laps actually at Indianapolis, not at Rockingham.) I know at the time I was more impressed with Park and thought he would have more staying power than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. I was wrong, even at the time, as this was clearly Junior's breakout and he looked a lot more balanced. However, it's clear that at this time Park's season was underrated as he had .6 more lead shares than CRL, while Junior's was a bit overrated with .5 more CRL than lead shares. Having said that, the most overrated season once again belonged to Rusty Wallace who led the most laps four times but only had one race in each of the other categories, and accumulated an entire lead share more than his number of CRL. Although Wallace won one race after this, this is largely the end of his relevant career, and it seems one can come to the conclusion looking at his career in general that it was for the most part overrated, particularly in his peak seasons. Kevin Harvick's season was very similar to Park's as he also had one more TNL than win (due to his cut tire at Bristol that gave Elliott Sadler the win) and also had substantially more lead shares than CRL, even to a greater degree than Park did, and his lead change record was right up there with Park's as well. Bobby Labonte was actually underrated this year despite lucking into the fall Atlanta race when Jerry Nadeau ran out of fuel as he had twice as many lead shares as cumulative races led and was clearly leading more than he should have been based on the speed of his cars and/or strength of his teams in general (as Stewart had a very similar ratio between lead shares and cumulative races led as well, this does not seem like it was a good year for the team in general, but the drivers succeeded in spite of it.)

2002

As already cited, this was the most competitive year in NASCAR history. Despite this season having 36 races, no single driver led more than 14 races naturally and there were different contenders almost every week, even in the points standings. Hardly anyone could string even three consecutive good weeks together, making this a very interesting and exciting season to watch and also making it easy to understand why this was essentially NASCAR's peak in popularity as well. It further helped that the three biggest stars and arguably the three most popular drivers both in 2002 and 2003, Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Tony Stewart, and Jeff Gordon, were the top three drivers in lead shares in that order both years. This was the only season in Cup history where the champion (Stewart), most consistent driver (Mark Martin), most dominant driver (Earnhardt, Jr.), driver who won the most races (Matt Kenseth), and driver who led the points standings for most of the season (Sterling Marlin) were all different drivers, and the same diversity existed in the leading categories as well. Even though he finished a mere 11th in points, that hardly reflected how Junior ran and in general he was the most dominant driver throughout the year. This was greatly aided by his absurd dominance on the restrictor plate tracks of course, but while that could and does carry him far, it's certainly not everything, as Michael Waltrip isn't near the top of any of these lists. Junior didn't even lead either Daytona race naturally this year so his number of natural races led without the plate tracks would be twelve, still tied for the most with Stewart and (surprisingly) Ryan Newman. People who want to reduce Junior as just a restrictor plate specialist are wrong, just as people who want to reduce Marlin like that. They may have been best on those tracks, but they weren't slouches elsewhere. Waltrip I think is another story. While Junior in general was the most dominant driver with the most races led, lead shares, and cumulative races led, this season was so competitive that not only did he not lead any of the five other categories, they were all led by different drivers! Stewart was only not the best duelist this year because Rusty Wallace (shockingly, in his first winless season since 1985, especially considering the low lead change records he had in a lot of his best years) had the best lead change record with a relatively small sample size. However, in general, it's clear that in this portion of the career Stewart was the best duelist, and in a year where the field was so deep that nobody had the capacity to be consistent for many weeks in a row (and all the teams were well-funded enough that pretty much anyone, even the mediocre drivers could have a dominant run out of nowhere), that might have been enough to carry him to the championship. Stewart's six TNL do indicate that he was unlucky to only win three races and make a far stronger case for him being championship caliber. In all three races he was the TNL but did not win he was beaten out of the pits (by Kenseth at Texas, by teammate Bobby Labonte at Martinsville in his only short track win, and by rookie Jimmie Johnson at Dover), indicating he didn't choke any of those races or anything. Stewart is only barely behind Junior in lead shares and again has one more lead share than cumulative races led, but was somewhat more diverse in his dominance, considering Stewart was better on the short tracks and road courses than Junior was. Gordon was nearly tied with Junior and Stewart in lead shares this year as well, and while he like the other two also had more lead shares than CRL indicating an underrated season, one of the races where Gordon was TNL and did not win was the Daytona 500, where his block of Marlin was arguably his fault. Although his record in general looks almost identical to Stewart's in every way possible, I've got to rate Stewart higher than Gordon also as he had more TNL than wins, and none of Stewart's additional TNL races in which he did not convert to wins were his fault; not to mention that Stewart ended up ahead of Gordon in lead shares despite being a half a cumulative race led down to him. Despite winning a series-leading five races, Kenseth was extremely lucky and benefited from pit strategy early and often, and his number of lead shares and statistics in all the other categories are tremendously disappointing, particularly his 12-21 record. Despite winning the most races that year, Kenseth's real breakout came later. Marlin's points lead for most of the season may have been more justified than most people now think it was. Despite only leading seven races naturally all season in the 28 races he started before his Kansas crash effectively ended his relevant career, he was the lead share leader in six of them! This was more than any other driver managed for the entire season despite not starting all the races. Admittedly, four of those races were among the first five races (Daytona, Rockingham, Las Vegas, and Darlington), so one can likely accuse Marlin of stroking after that point. Once he had a solid points lead after Darlington, solely because he was one of the only drivers to manage to string five consecutive top tens together at almost any time all season, he probably got complacent and protected his points lead too much, but that must be laid at the feet of Bob Latford and the perverse incentives his points system created, rather than Marlin himself. Marlin knew that was likely the first and last time he would ever have a legitimate shot as a championship so he probably took it easy in a lot of races he could have fought harder to protect his points lead. Marlin's season certainly looks better than I thought it would and while I don't think based on these data that he would have deserved a championship over Stewart, his leading the points standings for so long indeed seems to have been almost justified. Newman might have had the most impressive season of his career as he was second in races led behind only Junior despite being a mere rookie, but unlike his future teammate/boss Stewart in his rookie season, he was a surprisingly weak duelist for his level of dominance at 16-24, and this is a trend that would stay with him for his entire career. In every single season of his career, even the good ones, Newman would have a negative lead change record. Yet he is still considered the hardest to pass, when nobody seems to say that about the driver who actually was the hardest to pass, which was Stewart.

2003

In many ways this was a virtual replay of 2002 with the same three drivers, the biggest stars of the time, once again being the most consistently dominant in advanced leader statistics, with a continuation of the trends of numerous winners, different contenders at each race, and pretty much every driver being able to contend at some point during the season. However there are several differences. The main difference between 2002 and 2003 is that 2002 seems to have been the last gasp for a lot of the veteran drivers: Dale Jarrett, Ricky Rudd, Sterling Marlin, Rusty Wallace, and the like would never be truly relevant again, while this year would be the last hurrah for Bill Elliott and Bobby Labonte completely fell off the map after this season (despite somehow getting one of the most undeserved top ten points finishes in history in this season and backing into a Southern 500 win to bookend his career, Terry Labonte was already irrelevant, as he was only 29th in lead shares.) Although NASCAR was still at or near its popularity peak at this point, it was beginning to come off it slightly and the effects of the 2001 recession likely led to a reduction in sponsorship among the backmarker teams, which likely led to a consolidation among the premier teams, so the most dominant drivers were a bit more dominant, but there still didn't seem to be an obvious standout if you were actually watching the races. But there was. Too many fans have sneered at Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for too long (he led in lead shares and races led in 2002 despite having a mid-season concussion!) While Junior may have been great/elite for a rather short period, in that period he was greater than I think most people think, and not just on the plate tracks. He was extremely unlucky this season as he was the TNL 5 times (tied with Ryan Newman for the most) and earned the most lead shares in a race seven times, substantially more than anyone else. You can see how underrated Junior's season was just by looking at the difference between lead shares and CRL. Despite having only 3.5 cumulative races led he managed to accumulate six lead shares. In terms of the difference between lead shares and CRL, this is the most underrated season in Cup history (with Rusty Wallace's 1993 being the most overrated.) It seemed like anyone who was watching in this era did not feel that any one driver was this much above the rest, and probably no one who was watching at the time would have figured it would be Junior either. People continued to focus on his restrictor plate dominance in that period and failed to notice how much he stepped it up everywhere else solely because he wasn't winning often outside the plate tracks. Once again, even if you exclude the plate races, he still had more races led than anyone else (and once again, he didn't even lead the Daytona 500, so he is not leading any of these lists, especially this year, solely or even primarily due to his restrictor plate dominance, which was somewhat less this year than the other years from 2001-04 anyway actually.) Unfortunately, this season is one that I did not watch while it was running, and that is probably one of the main reasons why I underrated Junior. But no longer. The backlash that resulted from him being the most popular driver of his generation but not the most successful caused me and many others to overlook the greatness that did exist. His career honestly looks better than Davey Allison's for sure but nobody will ever argue that because we saw Junior's decline while we did not see Allison's. In addition to his wins at Talladega and Phoenix, Junior's other TNLs came at Daytona (where Greg Biffle beat him on fuel mileage), Pocono (where Ryan Newman did likewise), and even Watkins Glen! (Robby Gordon may have dominated the race, but Junior actually made the only on-track pass for the lead in that race, and if he was strong enough to even earn entire lead shares at the discipline that was arguably his worst, that says something about how impressive he was at this time.) Stewart for the second time posted the best lead change record at 24-11 but led in no other categories, although as usual his lead shares were considerably above his cumulative races led and he was certainly running better than his seventh place points finish would indicate. However, Jeff Gordon's decline apparently begins here, not in 2008 as most think. Although Gordon was ostensibly the most dominant driver of the year with the highest number of cumulative races led, he had over one fewer lead share and led the most laps six times despite only leading in lead shares four times and winning even less often than that. This would become a trend for Gordon throughout 2007 as he would consistently lead more than he would put himself in the lead over the next five seasons, although oddly this began reversing in his down years, as 2008-2011 his lead shares were suddenly above his cumulative races led again pretty consistently. This would lend credence to the argument that actually Gordon's performance was pretty even for almost the entire period from 2003-2011, but he looked better in the earlier years when his teams were stronger, and looked worse in the later years when his teams were weaker. It might not have had anything to do with his Las Vegas 2008 crash at all. Newman certainly had one of the most overrated seasons in history. Despite winning eight races, he had the most lead shares in exactly... zero. This indicates a driver who did not take the lead very often at all except at the end. While he dominated many races at the start due to his qualifying domination, and backed into many races at the end due to pit strategy and fuel mileage, he didn't lead much during the middle of races, and really didn't run nearly as well as any of his basic stats would indicate. Winning eight races to only eleven races led naturally is pretty embarrassing, as is his again negative record 13-18 as is the fact he only led the most laps three times and had five TNLs. Junior and Stewart at least were passing people at all portions of the race. Junior was especially strong at passes in the middle of the race, which are harder to notice when they aren't ultimately the pass for the win, but at least Junior was doing the work himself. Newman was being totally carried by his team. However, the champion Matt Kenseth looked even weaker, leading only six races naturally all season, the lowest total of any year since at the latest Darrell Waltrip's 1985 (but I would guess not since there are many races missing from that season.) Alan Kulwicki in 1992, Terry Labonte in 1996, Brad Keselowski in 2012, and Jimmie Johnson in 2016 all led more races in those championship seasons than did Kenseth in this year. He actually had an additional TNL at the Coca-Cola 600, where Johnson beat him out of the pits and his 9-6 lead change record is pretty good, but that's hard to justify as a championship season. It was almost a lucky coin flip that made Kenseth a champion and Junior not, when Junior so grossly outperformed him this year (although obviously the DEI cars were quite strong as this is Michael Waltrip's greatest performance). I still think Kenseth was likely a better driver than Junior, but now I have to think about it. One can understand based on Kenseth leading almost the entire season despite only ranking tenth in lead shares and tied for 11th in races led why NASCAR would decide to change the points system after this season. Even comparing to vaguely similar recent seasons Kenseth pales. As much as Marlin coasted in 2002, even he was more substantially dominant despite missing the last eight races. However, the Chase did not resolve the issue that allowed people to coast to championships. It just decreased the sample size of races for which points racing was more vital, making it even more likely, not less, that someone would luck into a championship.

2004

I had nothing particularly interesting to say about Jimmie Johnson's first two seasons, but his ascent to superstardom begins suddenly here as he jumped from having a losing lead change record in 2003 to passing others nearly twice as often as he was passed for the lead in 2004. This jump most resembles that of Mark Martin from 1991 to 1992. Despite finishing fifth and second in points, Johnson was still not taken as seriously as he should have been by many, with many people even saying at the end of 2003 that Ryan Newman was the "real" talent, even though Johnson beat him in points both seasons. While Newman did have more wins and TNLs entering this season, I suspect most of that is solely because Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart were regarded as the best drivers at the time, which caused any and all sprint car drivers who show any potential to be overhyped, while the superior drivers from traditional stock car backgrounds, like Dale Earnhardt, Jr., tended not to get as much hype as they actually deserved, and the superior drivers from off-road backgrounds, like Johnson, got even less. Who ever heard of a great NASCAR driver from desert trucks? He would however remain consistently great for the next decade and post a positive lead change record every year of his career except for one, often by large margins, from this point to the present day, even in his recent fading seasons. Gordon may have led one more race and may have dominated more races, with Gordon leading the most laps 7 races to Johnson's 3, and also posting almost an entire additional CRL than did Johnson, but Johnson easily outperformed Gordon more than most people thought at the time. For all the talk of how much Johnson lucked into race victories, he really didn't (especially when you compare to the drivers who really did like Darrell Waltrip, Ryan Newman, and Joey Logano in particular.) He was merely clutch, better at leading races at the end than he was earlier on, which likely explains why he won so many championships, why his win and TNL totals were usually greater than the number of races where he led the most laps (because he cared about winning them more than he cared about dominating them, which is to his credit.) The only reason why Gordon scored more points than Johnson is because of Johnson's three straight engine failures in the middle of the season, which probably would not have happened had there been no Chase and no reason for Chad Knaus to experiment. Just like in 2003, Gordon may have been the most dominant driver, but he wasn't the best, and both seasons he was dominating more than he was actually leading through his own efforts. It's telling that Johnson beat him for the championship as early as his second season (and was even ahead of him in points for most of his first season.) I can still understand people making arguments that Gordon was the better driver (because of his versatility across track types, particularly how he was better on the short tracks, road courses, and plate tracks than Johnson, which he was), but having said that there should be no question that Johnson was similarly the better racer. Many of Gordon's lead change records simply aren't as impressive as you'd expect, and Johnson corrected that mistake. Especially in an era when fewer and fewer races become more and more important, that continued to more and more play into Johnson's hands and hurt Gordon, just like the increasing number of cautions in this period would likewise do, as better duelists are rewarded more and more the more restarts there are. Johnson's era really begins in this year, not 2006, and although Gordon once in a great while had a better season from this perspective than Johnson (particularly 2011, the most underrated of Gordon's career) even by this point it was already Johnson's team. Junior might have been able to significantly challenge Johnson had he not been injured in the American Le Mans wreck at Sonoma, which definitely does seem to have split Junior's career in two between a period of greatness and a period when he was rather second-tier for most of the rest of his career. Prior to Junior's sports car crash, Johnson had led nine races naturally to Junior and Gordon's eight, so at that point in the season it looked fairly even. Junior still again had an overall underrated season and was certainly better than fifth in points would indicate even counting whatever he lost due to his injury. Gordon, Junior, and Stewart still remained strong as in the previous two seasons when they were in the top three in lead shares, but Johnson had obviously clearly jumped all of them and wouldn't let up for the most part for the next nine years, leading at least one category in all those years except 2011. Kurt Busch's championship season is often considered the worst, but it actually was a banner year for him as he would never lead more races naturally than he did this year (although he led the same number of races in 2007 and 2011.) He also tended to lead late rather than early as he had one more lead share than cumulative race led. He was the only driver who significantly overachieved by this metric (although Junior again came fairly close), and it may have helped him in the championship. Newman as usual had the second most overrated season to Gordon. Kasey Kahne in his rookie season substantially outperformed veteran teammate Jeremy Mayfield in all metrics except for wins and actually scoring points. With performance by almost all other metrics seeming to indicate he should have won 2 races, this is up there with Ricky Rudd's 1988, Alan Kulwicki's 1989, and Ernie Irvan's 1997 as one of the least lucky seasons ever.

2005

Although he was the best duelist of his generation and ranked in the top four in lead shares in each of his first nine seasons, Stewart's second championship season was actually the only time he led in lead shares in his Cup career. He was certainly more dominant than his five mid-season wins imply and even though Greg Biffle led more races, won more races, and had the most TNL I think Stewart did inarguably have the best season of any driver that year as well as his career, particularly when you consider his teammate Bobby Labonte ranked 27th and last among all drivers in lead shares among those who made an on-track pass for the lead (even behind his elder part-time brother), while all the other Roush drivers except for Mark Martin had strong seasons by all leading metrics. Although you can't really say there were any races that Stewart should have won but did not since his five wins were also the only five races he was the terminal natural leader, he significantly factored in many others and also led in lead shares at the spring Richmond race, fall Martinsville, fall Loudon, and fall Talladega. However, in three of those he was simply outdueled (Richmond by Kasey Kahne in his first win, Loudon by Ryan Newman in what might have been his most impressive win, and Talladega by Jamie McMurray and ultimately Dale Jarrett in his final win.) Martinsville is more debatable as Stewart beat Jeff Gordon out of the pits, but it still counted as a natural win for Gordon because he and Biffle traded the lead a couple times afterward. One can argue particularly at Loudon and Talladega that Stewart might have been playing it safe to make sure he finished - perhaps without the chase he would have indeed had a big enough points lead where he wouldn't have worried about being conservative in those races. This year is a good example of the difference between Stewart, who was the best duelist of his generation but not the best at the end of races, and Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson, the two drivers who were most clutch at the end. While both Edwards and Johnson led only half the races as Stewart did naturally, they were much more clutch in them only each winning one fewer race even though they led far less often. While Stewart had two more races where he led the most laps than races where he had the most lead shares, the reverse held for Edwards and Johnson, who were clearly punching above their weight, particularly Johnson. For the second consecutive year, Johnson had the highest lead change percentage and he did so in what was probably the most down season for Hendrick between 2000 and 2017. Edwards, whose lead change record was nearly as good as Johnson's, had over one more lead share than CRL winning 4 races and being the TNL 5 times despite only leading nine races and only leading the most laps in one. In addition to his four wins, Edwards was also the TNL at Michigan before Jeremy Mayfield won on fuel mileage and tied Stewart in TNL despite leading far less. Having said that, there is basically no question that Edwards had stronger cars than Stewart, considering where most of his teammates were on the list and where Stewart's weren't. Stewart had a clear advantage in the diversity of where he contended as he won and was the TNL on a plate track, a rough track, both road courses, and an unrestricted superspeedway, and none of the Roush teammates nor Johnson came even close to that. Edwards was only the TNL on unrestricted superspeedways, while Biffle and Johnson at least also were at Dover and Darlington. Kurt Busch clearly had an underrated season as he clearly factored just as much as Edwards did and substantially more than Kenseth or Martin despite finishing behind them in points. Kyle Busch had a truly impressive rookie season given that his ten races led trailed only Stewart, Biffle, and his brother and Kyle Busch even as a rookie managed to lead more races naturally than any of his Hendrick teammates. Martin's 7-14 record is easily the most disappointing considering all his other Roush teammates had positive lead change records and Martin was the only Roush driver to not earn a natural win, as his win at Kansas came when he beat Biffle out of the pits early in the race and was just never passed again. For the most part, this season is what you'd expect and fairly close to the actual points standings, although it seems the Hendrick drivers were better than they looked generally while the Roush drivers were clearly inflated by their superspeedway dominance, no doubt resulting from their acquisition of Yates engines in the middle of the 2004 season.

2006

Here was a season that had much stronger parity than you'd think. I had no idea who would be leading in lead shares before I calculated it, although one could easily reason that it would have likely been Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, or Jimmie Johnson since they tended to be the most dominant drivers of the year, and all showed well leading in various categories. Kenseth, who in 2005 seemed a bit lackluster compared to his Roush teammates in the first two thirds of the season, went on a bit of a tear late and that continued into 2006 even as his teammates started to falter. Kenseth was the TNL at all four races he won as well as the Chicagoland race where Jeff Gordon spun him out of the lead but he really shone in terms of lead shares, earning the most lead shares in seven races despite only leading the most laps in four. Although Stewart was again the most dominant driver of the season in terms of cumulative races led (despite missing the chase), Kenseth's greater performance towards the end of races and greater passing ability were enough to give him a very slight, marginal lead in lead shares over Stewart. While Kenseth was likely unlucky not to win more considering the Chicagoland race and that he had three more races where he led in lead shares than where he led the most laps, Stewart was somewhat lucky to win as often as he did, particularly the vaguely farcical Kansas fuel mileage race, where Johnson was the TNL. Hendrick again didn't really seem to have the strongest cars this year as Kasey Kahne and Kenseth tended to sweep up in terms of wins and TNL on the unrestricted superspeedways but regardless Johnson again for the third consecutive year had the best lead change percentage, which nobody else had ever done to this point in the years recorded. Despite probably not having as strong cars as Kahne did, and leading slightly less often in terms of CRL, he beat Kahne in terms of the number of races with the most lead shares and beat him by almost an entire lead share over the entire season. This likely makes it pretty clear how Johnson and Kahne would fare against each other when they actually became teammates later. Despite winning the most races, Kahne certainly did not have the best season and perhaps didn't even have a top five season given the severe lack of diversity in terms of where he was winning. Although he gets points for being clutch throughout his career when he had a chance of winning (which was always a strength of Kahne's), his main weakness was that he was just a complete non-factor at too many races a year. This was blamed on the lousiness of his equipment by many fans, who likely overrated seasons like this because of Jeremy Mayfield's poor performance, but knowing what we now know about Mayfield's later career, it's possible some other things were going on that we didn't know about at the time that Mayfield look much worse than he should have at the time. This is clearly one of Kevin Harvick's most impressive seasons and he deserved to be a championship factor. Although Jeff Burton began to have a bit of a resurgence at this time, he was still nowhere close to Harvick. Despite the RCR cars being fairly down on horsepower, he managed to win all five of his races naturally at a set of fairly difficult tracks: both Phoenix races, the fall Loudon race, the fall Richmond race, and at Watkins Glen. Comparing the tracks where Harvick had his best runs to the tracks where Kahne and to a lesser degree Kenseth and Johnson were having their best runs, there is a case to be made that Harvick given the equipment he was driving might have actually had the best season, although I'm inclined to say that the championship result favoring Johnson was correct. Greg Biffle had one hell of an underrated season and dominated just as often as he did in 2005 particularly in the earlier portions of the year; however, this tended to be inflated since he usually dominated early rather than late, was not a factor to lead many races towards the end, and had four races where he led the most laps but only two with the most lead shares. His lack of clutch ability in this season, which was likely reflected in him laughably missing the chase, means he certainly didn't have as strong a season as Kenseth, Stewart, Johnson, or Harvick, but it's telling that for what an afterthought Biffle seemed to be that he still led as many races as anybody else. This is not one of the most underrated seasons (along the lines of Rudd's 1988, Kulwicki's 1989, Irvan's 1997, Junior's 2003 and the like) but it was still an underrated season as he came closer to keeping up his 2005 dominance than for instance Carl Edwards did (who took a significant nosedive here and seldom really factored, which is surprising given his results in the surrounding seasons.)